A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
